Have England Qualified for the World Cup Yet?

The short answer is: No. The long answer is: No, at time of writing we haven’t, so stop asking.

But we’re very very close. With seven wins from seven games and a +22 goal difference, something would have to go spectacularly wrong for us not to win this group and go to South Africa in 2010. Steve McClaren himself couldn’t mess this up. But it’s not official. Not yet.

Here’s why: We’re 10 points clear of both Croatia and UKraine, but they both have a game in hand. Everyone plays ten games, so both Croatia and Ukraine have four games (worth a possible 12 points) to go. Put simply, until our lead at the top is greater than the number of points available to the second place team, we’re not officially qualified.

So, how do we get that done then? Simple. Sort of. We play Croatia at Wembley on September 9th and could seal qualification with a win there. But we could even qualify before then, without so much as kicking a ball.

Croatia play Belarus away on 12th August and Belarus at home on September 5th. If they don’t get at least four points from those games, then they can’t catch us.

Ukraine play Andorra at home on September 5th and Belarus away on September 9th. They also need at least four points from those two games if they want to catch us.

So if neither of those teams get at least four points from those two games, we qualify.

If Croatia or Ukraine do take four points from those two games (and they probably will), then we can still secure qualification with a draw vs Croatia at Wembley.

If Croatia or Ukraine take six points from their next two games (which is very possible) then we can qualify by beating Croatia at Wembley on September 9th, which would give us have an unassailable seven point lead. Failing that we’d need points vs either Ukraine away on October 10th (tough game) or Belarus at home on October 14th (not so tough).

So, in the short term we qualify if: Both Croatia and Ukraine get less than four points from their next two games, or
They get four points from their next two games but we get at least a draw vs Croatia at Wembley, or
They get six points from their next two games but we beat Croatia at Wembley.

Here are England, Croatia and Ukraine’s remaining fixtures, just so everyone’s clear.

England:
vs Croatia (home) September 9th
vs Ukraine (away) October 10th
vs Belarus (home) October 14th

Croatia:
vs Belarus (away) August 12th
vs Belarus (home) September 5th
vs England (away) September 9th
vs Kazakhstan (away) October 14th

Ukraine:
vs Andorra (home) September 5th
vs Belarus (away) September 9th
vs England (home) October 10th
vs Andorra (away) October 14th

UDPATE: I completely forgot about Belarus (see comments). They’re currently two points behind Ukraine and Croatia, but with a game in hand. Still all to play for. Here are their fixtures:

Belarus
vs Croatia (home) August 12th
vs Croatia (away) September 5th
vs Ukraine (home) September 9th
vs Kazakhstan (home) October 10th
vs England (away) October 14th

Which makes qualification a little more complicated. Seems the best thing for us would be if Croatia and Belarus draw against each other twice in August and September.